SET Announcements
Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) Q2/2008
14 August 2008
Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) and Operating Results for the 2nd
Quarter of 2008 and the Six-Month Period Ended June 30, 2008
1. Financial and Operating Highlights
2Q 2008 2Q 2007 1H 2008 1H 2007
Crude intake (kbpd) 148.6 133.6 144.9 140.8
Paraxylene production (thousand tons)
91 107 175 210
Average forex rate (Baht/US$) 32.3 34.7 32.4 35.2
Gross refining margin (US$/BBL) 23.3 9.0 15.3 8.4
Sales (million Baht) 68,247 50,228 121,787 95,564
Gross profit (million Baht) 9,674 4,529 12,693 8,977
EBITDA (million Baht) 8,947 4,000 11,268 7,936
Net profit (million Baht) 5,814 1,894 6,944 3,929
(1)
Earnings per share (Baht) 1.84 3.71 2.41 7.70
(2)
Adjusted Earnings per share (Baht) 1.68 0.55 2.01 1.14
(1)
Based on actual weighed average number of common shares during the period:
- 2Q 2007 and 1H 2007 510 milion. shares
- 2Q 2008 3,158 million. shares
- 1H 2008 2,886 million. Shares
(2) Based on total current number of shares: 3,461 million. shares
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2. Benchmark Prices for Crude Oil and Refined Petroleum Products
Average Platts Singapore quoted prices for crude oil and refined products
Unit: US$/BBL 2Q 2008 2Q 2007 1Q 2008 1H 2008 1H 2007
Dubai 116.9 64.8 91.4 104.2 60.1
Tapis 129.5 75.0 102.5 116.0 69.3
Gasoline (95 Ron) 129.8 85.7 105.1 117.5 77.0
Jet fuel / kerosene 154.4 82.3 114.2 134.3 77.2
Diesel (0.5%S) 154.5 81.3 114.4 134.4 75.7
Fuel oil (180 cs) 92.6 54.0 74.6 83.6 49.5
LPG 75.8 50.4 73.4 74.6 48.4
Paraxylene - US$/Ton 1,330 1,170 1,123 1,227 1,108
(1)
Gasoline (95 Ron) - US$/Ton
1,104 728 894 999 655
Source: Mean of Platts Singapore and PCI
(1)
Converted to US$/Ton using 1 Ton = 8.5 barrels
Crude prices rose rapidly in 2Q 2008. Dubai and Tapis crude
prices were up around 25$/bbl in 2Q 2008 compared to 1Q 2008.
While increases in gasoline and fuel oil prices were somewhat
less than crude oil prices, distillate price increases significantly outpaced
crude due to strong demand. LPG prices remained under government control in
Thailand. The ex-refinery price was flat at 11 Baht/kg (US$340/Ton or about
US$30/barrel)
The gap between paraxylene and gasoline prices narrowed slightly
during the quarter.
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3. Production and Gross Margin
2Q 2008 2Q 2007 + / (-) 1H 2008 1H 2007 + / (-)
Refining capacity (kbpd)
177.0 177.0 - 177.0 177.0 -
Crude intake (kbpd)
148.6 133.6 + 15.0 144.9 140.8 + 4.1
Refinery production
(1)
- Light products (%)
34.7% 36.7% -2.0% 34.8% 35.4% -0.6%
- Middle distillates (%)
54.2% 48.9% +5.3% 52.7% 49.2% +3.5%
- Heavy products (%)
11.1% 14.4% -3.3% 12.6% 15.5% -2.9%
Paraxylene production ('000 tons)
91 107 -16 175 210 -35
Gross Refining Margin (US$/BBL)
23.3 9.0 +14.3 15.3 8.4 +6.9
(1)
Excludes reformate for chemical feedstock
Crude intake in 2Q 2007 was impacted by the temporary shut down
of one pipe still for decoking. Higher crude intake in 2Q 2008 was also due
to attractive refining margins.
Paraxylene production in 2Q 2008 was lower than 2Q 2007 as the
declining paraxylene industry margins made additional production uneconomical.
Gross refining margin (GRM) increased by 14.3$/bbl to 23.3$/bbl
in 2Q 2008 from 9.0$/bbl in 2Q 2007.
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4. Financial Performance of 2Q 2008 and first half of 2008
(Unit: million Baht)
2Q 2008 2Q 2007 +/(-) 1H 2008 1H 2007 +/(-)
Sales 68,247 50,228 18,019 121,787 95,564 26,223
Cost of sales (58,573) (45,699) (12,874) (109,094) (86,587) (22,507)
Gross profit 9,674 4,529 5,145 12,693 8,977 3,716
Selling and administrative expenses
(1,217) (1,026) (191) (2,397) (2,033) (364)
Profit from sales
8,457 3,503 4,954 10,296 6,944 3,352
Memo:
- Downstream
8,586 3,021 5,565 10,534 5,790 4,744
- Petrochemicals
(129) 482 (611) (238) 1,154 (1,392)
Other income 18 26 (8) 25 42 (17)
Operating profit
8,475 3,529 4,946 10,321 6,986 3,335
Other non-operating income
- 162 (162) - 323 (323)
Share of profit from an associate
58 50 8 120 101 19
Profit before interest and income tax
8,533 3,741 4,792 10,441 7,409 3,032
Interest income
29 29 - 42 111 (69)
Interest expense
(281) (1,238) 957 (616) (2,523) 1,907
Profit before income tax
8,281 2,532 5,749 9,867 4,997 4,870
Income tax charge
(2,467) (638) (1,829) (2,923) (1,068) (1,855)
Net profit
5,814 1,894 3,920 6,944 3,929 3,015
Both sales and cost of sales in 2Q 2008 were higher than 2Q 2007,
reflecting higher sales volumes and rising crude and refined petroleum
product prices. Gross profit for 2Q 2008 was more than double of 2Q 2007
due mainly to the improved refining gross margin. Taking into account the
lower gross profit of 1Q 2008 comparing to 1Q 2007, 1H 2008 gross profit was
41% higher than 1H 2007.
Selling and administrative expenses were higher comparing 2Q 2008
to 2Q 2007 and also 1H 2008 to 1H 2007 mainly due to the inclusion of expenses
incurred by the chemical marketing business, resulting from the entire
business transfer of ExxonMobil Chemical (Thailand) Limited or EMCTL to the
Company in September 2007, and higher transportation costs incurred for
commercial and retail sales.
There was no other non-operating income in 2Q 2008. Other
non-operating income consisted of the amortization of the deferred
gain on the sale and leaseback transaction which the Company entered
into in 2000 to lease certain assets that were sold to EMCTL.
The absence of other non-operating income was due to the
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termination of the sale and leaseback transaction following the transfer of
the entire business of EMCTL to the Company in September 2007.
Interest expense was down significantly by Baht 957 million
(77%) in 2Q 2008 comparing to 2Q 2007 and Baht 1,907 million (76%) in
1H 2008 compared to 1H 2007. This was the result of lower debt (due to the
debt repayment associated with the capital injection in September 2007, the
IPO proceeds in May 2008, and operating cash flow) as well as lower interest
rates (due to the debt refinancing completed in December 2007).
The effective tax rate was 30% for 2Q 2008 and 1H 2008
comparing to 25% for 2Q 2007 and 21% for 1H 2007. The lower effective
tax rate in 2007 was primarily impacted by the income tax holiday,
granted by the Board of Investment for income generated by the Company's
aromatics plant, expiring on 10 September 2007.
As a result of the foregoing factors, our net profit for 2Q 2008
increased by Baht 3,920 million (207%) from 2Q 2007,and 1H 2008 increased
by Baht 3,015 million (77%) from 1H 2007.
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5. Balance Sheet
(Unit: million Baht except for percentages)
30 Jun,2008 31 Mar,2008 +/(-) +/(-) %
Assets
- Current assets 47,040 40,856 6,184 15%
- Non-current assets 30,915 33,570 (2,655) -8%
Total assets 77,955 74,426 3,529 5%
Liabilities
- Current liabilities 29,871 36,908 (7,037) -19%
- Non-current liabilities
12,017 12,013 4 -
Total liabilities 41,888 48,921 (7,033) -14%
Shareholders' equity
- Issued & paid-up share capital
17,075 12,877 4,198 33%
- Premium on share capital
4,032 - 4,032 -
- Retained earnings
14,736 12,384 2,352 19%
- Fair value reserve
217 237 - -
Minority interest 7 7 - 0%
Total shareholders' equity
36,067 25,505 10,562 41%
Total liabilities and shareholders' equity
77,955 74,426 3,529 5%
As of 30 June 2008, current assets increased Baht 6,184 million
from 31 March 2008 primarily due to higher inventory.Non-current asset
decreased Baht 2,655 million due to lower deferred income tax assets as a
result of lower tax loss carry forward balance from positive 1H 2008 taxable
income.
Current liabilities decreased Baht 7,037 million due to lower debt
balance offsetting with higher payables. The Company paid down about
Baht 14.7 billion of short term debts in 2Q 2008, using net IPO proceeds
and cash generated during the period.
Total shareholders' equity increased Baht 10,562 million from (1)
Issued and paid-up capital increased Baht 4,198 million (par value of IPO's
new shares issuance) in 2Q 2008, (2) Baht 4,032 million of premium on share
capital recognized in 2Q 2008 and (3) retained earnings increased by
Baht 2,352 million from the net of 2Q 2008 net profit of Baht 5,814 million
minus the amount of dividend paid, Baht 3,461 million.
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6. Financial Ratios
Comparison of financial ratios are as follows:
Profitability ratios
2Q 2008 1Q 2008 2Q 2007 1H 2008 1H 2007
Gross profit margin (%)
14.2% 5.6% 9.0% 10.4% 9.4%
Net profit margin (%)
8.5% 2.1% 3.8% 5.7% 4.1%
Interest coverage ratio (times)
31.8 6.9 3.2 18.3 3.1
Liquidity and debt to equity ratios
30 Jun, 2008 31 Mar, 2008 31 Dec, 2007
Current ratio (times) 1.6 1.1 1.1
Quick ratio (times) 0.4 0.2 0.3
Total debt to equity ratio (times)
0.6 1.4 1.4
Long term debt to equity ratio (times)
0.3 0.4 0.5
Net debt to equity ratio (times)
0.5 1.3 1.4
Financial ratios calculation:
Gross profit margin = Gross profit / Sales
Net profit margin = Net profit / Sales
Interest coverage ratio = EBITDA / Interest expense
Current ratio = Current assets / Current liabilities
Quick ratio = (Cash and cash equivalents + Short term investments
+ Trade receivables)/ Current liabilities
Total debt = Current borrowings + Non-current borrowings
Total debt to equity ratio = Total debt / Total shareholders' equity
Long term debt to equity ratio = Non-current borrowings
/ Total shareholders'equity
Net debt to equity ratio = (Total debt - Cash and cash equivalents) /
Total shareholder's equity
Name: Daniel E. Lyons
Title: Managing Director
Date: 14 August 2008
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