Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) 1Q2009

15 May 2009
Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) and Operating Results for the Three-Month Period Ended March 31, 2009 1. Financial and Operating Highlights 1Q 2009 1Q 2008 Crude intake (kbpd) 138.1 141.2 Paraxylene production (thousand tons) 82 84 Average forex rate (Baht/US$) 35.3 32.5 Gross refining margin (US$/BBL) 8.48 6.95 Sales (million Baht) 33,484 53,540 Gross profit (million Baht) 3,812 3,019 EBITDA (million Baht) 3,176 2,321 Net profit (million Baht) 1,826 1,130 (1) Earnings per share (Baht) 0.5 0.4 (2) Adjusted Earnings per share (Baht) 0.5 0.3 (1) Total number of shares outstanding as of: 31 Mar 2008 2,610 million 31 Mar 2009 3,461 million (2) Based on total current number of shares: 3,461 million. shares 1 2. Benchmark Prices for Crude Oil and Refined Petroleum Products Average Platts Singapore quoted prices for crude oil and refined products Unit: US$/BBL 1Q 2009 4Q 2008 1Q 2008 Dubai 44.3 52.6 91.4 Tapis 48.4 59.7 102.5 Gasoline (95 Ron) 54.8 56.3 105.1 Jet fuel / kerosene 55.4 74.7 114.2 Diesel (0.5%S) 53.2 70.3 114.4 Fuel oil (180 cs) 39.0 44.8 74.6 LPG 39.4 47.9 73.4 Paraxylene - US$/Ton 727 673 1,123 (1) Gasoline (95 Ron)-US$/Ton 466 479 894 Source: Mean of Platts Singapore and PCI (1) Converted to US$/Ton using 1 Ton = 8.5 barrels Average crude prices for 1Q 2009 decreased from 4Q 2008. Dubai crude prices during the first quarter were in the range of 40-50$/bbl and averaged 44.3$/bbl, 16% lower versus the average of 4Q 2008. Tapis crude prices averaged 48.4$/bbl in 1Q 2009, 19% lower versus 4Q 2008. However, prices of Dubai and Tapis at quarter-end 1Q 2009 were higher than at year-end 2008. Dubai rose from 37$/bbl to 47$/bbl and Tapis rose from 40$/bbl to 50$/bbl. The decrease of middle distillates prices, i.e. jet fuel and diesel, outpaced crude price declines in 1Q 2009, whereas gasoline and fuel oil price decreases were outpaced by crude price declines. LPG prices remained under government control at 11 Baht/kg (US$310/Ton or US$27/barrel). Paraxylene Asian Contract price (ACP) in 1Q 2009 improved from 4Q 2008. 2 3. Production and Gross Margin 1Q 2009 1Q 2008 + / (-) Refining capacity (kbpd) 177.0 177.0 - Crude intake (kbpd) 138.1 141.2 (3.1) Refinery production (1) - Light products (%) 33.9% 34.8% (0.9)% - Middle distillates (%) 50.2% 51.2% (1.0)% - Heavy products (%) 15.9% 14.0% 1.9% Paraxylene production ('000 tons) 82 84 (2) Gross Refining Margin (US$/BBL) 8.48 6.95 1.53 (1) Excludes reformate for chemical feedstock Crude intake and paraxylene production for 1Q 2009 were slightly lower than 1Q 2008 at 138.1 KBD and 82 KTon respectively. Gross refining margin (GRM) was 8.48 $/bbl in 1Q 2009, up from 6.95 $/bbl in 1Q 2008.Gross refining margin for both 1Q 2009 and 1Q 2008 included inventory effects as a result of increasing crude price for the quarters. 3 4. Financial Performance of 1Q 2009 and 1Q 2008 (Unit: million Baht) 1Q 2009 1Q 2008 + / (-) Sales 33,484 53,540 (20,056) Cost of sales (29,672) (50,521) 20,849 Gross profit 3,812 3,019 793 Selling and administrative expenses (1,126) (1,180) 54 Profit from sales 2,686 1,839 847 Memo: - Downstream 2,899 1,948 951 - Petrochemicals (213) (109) (104) Other income 12 7 5 Operating profit 2,698 1,846 852 Share of profit from an associate 66 63 3 Profit before interest and income tax 2,764 1,909 855 Interest income 2 14 (12) Interest expense (205) (335) 130 Profit before income tax 2,561 1,587 974 Income tax charge (735) (457) (278) Net profit 1,826 1,130 696 Both sales and cost of sales came down in 1Q 2009 compared to 1Q 2008 primarily reflecting lower average crude and refined petroleum product prices for the quarter. Gross profit was Baht 3,812 million in 1Q 2009 compared to Baht 3,019 million in 1Q 2008. The higher gross profit in 1Q 2009 resulted mainly from higher gross refining margins. Selling and administrative expenses were Baht 54 million lower in 1Q 2009 due to lower promotional spending and lower transportation costs incurred for commercial and retail sales. Profit from sales for the downstream segment increased Baht 951 million as gross refining margins improved. With the impact of unfavorable mixed-xylene feedstock costs in 1Q 2009 as compared with 1Q 2008 and lower volumes and margins in other chemical products, profit from sales for the petrochemical segment decreased Baht 104 million. Interest expense was down by 39% or Baht 130 million in 1Q 2009 compared to 1Q 2008 as a result of lower debt as well as lower interest rates. 4 The effective tax rate was 29% for 1Q 2009 as the profit from an associate was not tax affected. As a result of the foregoing factors, our net profit increased 62% to Baht 1,826 million in 1Q 2009 from Baht 1,130 million in 1Q 2008. 5 5. Balance Sheet (Unit: million Baht except for percentages) 31 Mar, 2009 31 Dec, 2008 + / (-) + / (-) % Assets -Current assets 22,199 18,434 3,765 20% -Non-current assets 35,900 36,636 (736) -2% Total assets 58,099 55,070 3,029 6% Liabilities -Current liabilities 26,596 33,682 (7,086) -21% -Non-current liabilities 9,255 968 8,287 856% Total liabilities 35,851 34,650 1,201 3% Shareholders' equity -Issued & paid-up share capital 17,075 17,075 - - -Premium on share capital 4,032 4,032 - - -Retained earnings 1,023 (803) 1,826 227% -Fair value reserve 111 108 3 3% Minority interest 7 7 - - Total shareholders' equity 22,248 20,420 1,828 9% Total liabilities and shareholders' equity 58,099 55,070 3,029 6% As of 31 March 2009, current assets increased Baht 3,765 million from 31 December 2008 primarily due to higher trade receivables and inventory resulting from higher crude and product prices at the end of the first quarter versus year-end 2008. Non-current assets decreased by Baht 736 million as the net profits in 1Q 2009 decreased deferred income tax assets. Current liabilities decreased by Baht 7,086 million as the company made a net repayment of short-term revolving debts of Baht 3,673 million in 1Q 2009 and Baht 8,250 million of long-term debt was re-characterized as a non-current liability as described in footnote 10 of the financial statements, which was partially offset by higher amount due to related parties which was mainly crude payables. Retained earnings increased Baht 1,826 million from the net profit of 1Q 2009. 6 6. Financial Ratios Comparison of financial ratios for 1Q 2009 and 1Q 2008 are as follows: Profitability ratios 1Q 2009 1Q 2008 Gross profit margin (%) 11.4% 5.6% Net profit margin (%) 5.5% 2.1% Interest coverage ratio (times) 15.5 6.9 Liquidity and debt to equity ratios 31 Mar, 2009 31 Dec, 2008 Current ratio (times) 0.8 0.5 Quick ratio (times) 0.2 0.1 Total debt to equity ratio (times) 1.1 1.4 Long term debt to equity ratio (times) 0.4 0.0 Net debt to equity ratio (times) 1.1 1.3 Financial ratios calculation: Gross profit margin = Gross profit / Sales Net profit margin = Net profit / Sales Interest coverage ratio = EBITDA / Interest expense Current ratio = Current assets / Current liabilities Quick ratio = (Cash and cash equivalents + Short term investments + Trade receivables) / Current liabilities Total debt = Current borrowings + Non-current borrowings Total debt to equity ratio = Total debt / Total shareholders' equity Long term debt to equity ratio = Non-current borrowings / Total shareholders' equity Net debt to equity ratio = (Total debt - Cash and cash equivalents) / Total shareholder's equity Name: Daniel E. Lyons Title: Managing Director Date: May 15, 2009 7