Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) Quarter 1 2010

14 พฤษภาคม 2553
Management's Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) and Operating Results for the Three-Month Period Ended March 31, 2010 1. Financial and Operating Highlights 1Q 2010 1Q 2009 Crude intake (kbpd) 115.9 138.1 Paraxylene production (thousand tons) 80 82 Average forex rate (Baht/US$) 32.9 35.3 Gross refining margin (US$/BBL) 2.24 8.48 Sales (million Baht) 43,501 33,484 Gross profit (million Baht) 1,441 3,769 EBITDA (million Baht) 779 3,176 Net profit (million Baht) 249 1,826 (1) Earnings per share (Baht) 0.07 0.53 (1) Based on total current number of shares: 3,461 million shares 1 2. Benchmark Prices for Crude Oil and Refined Petroleum Products Average Platts Singapore quoted prices for crude oil and refined products Unit: US$/BBL 1Q 2010 1Q 2009 4Q 2009 Dubai 75.8 44.3 75.4 Tapis 79.5 48.4 77.8 Gasoline (95 Ron) 88.5 54.8 80.5 Jet fuel / kerosene 85.2 55.4 82.8 Diesel (0.5%S) 84.8 53.2 81.7 Fuel oil (180 cs) 72.8 39.0 70.9 LPG 64.4 39.4 58.0 Paraxylene - US$/Ton 1,055 727 953 (1) Gasoline (95 Ron) - US$/Ton 752 466 684 Source: Mean of Platts Singapore and PCI (1) Converted to US$/Ton using 1 Ton = 8.5 barrels 1Q 2010 average crude prices were about the same level as in 4Q 2009, but much higher than in the same quarter last year. Dubai crude prices during the first quarter moved in the range of $70/bbl - $80/bbl, averaging $75.8/bbl, or about 1% higher than 4Q 2009. Tapis crude prices averaged $79.5/bbl, 2% higher than 4Q 2009. 1Q 2010 product prices also increased from 4Q 2009. While jet fuel, diesel and fuel oil prices increased about 3% - 4%, gasoline prices increased to a greater extent, about 10%. This resulted in stronger refining industry margins for the quarter.LPG prices remained under government price control with an average of Baht 11.1/kg during 1Q 2010 ($336/Ton or $29/bbl). Paraxylene Asian Contract price (ACP) in 1Q 2010 was $1,055/Ton, slightly improved from 4Q 2009. 2 3. Production and Gross Margin 1Q 2010 1Q 2009 + / (-) Refining capacity (kbpd) 177.0 177.0 - Crude intake (kbpd) 115.9 138.1 -22.2 Refinery production (1) - Light products (%) 32.6% 33.9% -1.3% - Middle distillates (%) 51.8% 50.2% 1.6% - Heavy products (%) 15.6% 15.9% -0.3% Paraxylene production ('000 tons) 80 82 -2 Gross Refining Margin (US$/BBL) 2.24 8.48 -6.24 (1) Excludes reformate for chemical feedstock 1Q 2010 crude intake was 115.9 KBD. The lower crude run versus 1Q 2009 was due mainly to planned maintenance activities for Atmospheric Pipestill and Hydrofiner units from mid February to early March and also weaker industry margins. Paraxylene production for 1Q 2010 was 80 Ktons, about the same level as in 1Q 2009. It was not economical to increase production during the refinery maintenance. 1Q 2010 Gross Refining Margin (GRM) was $2.24/bbl versus $8.48/bbl in 1Q 2009. The lower GRM was due to weaker industry margins, and the absence of large stock gains in 1Q 2009. 3 4. Financial Performance in 1Q 2010 and 1Q 2009 (Unit: million Baht) 1Q 2010 1Q 2009 + / (-) Sales 43,501 33,484 10,017 Cost of sales (42,060) (29,715) (12,345) Gross profit 1,441 3,769 (2,328) Selling expenses (1,064) (988) (76) Administrative expenses (90) (95) 5 Profit from sales 287 2,686 (2,399) Memo: - Downstream 138 2,899 (2,761) - Petrochemicals 149 (213) 362 Other income 12 12 - Operating profit 299 2,698 (2,399) Share of profit from an associate 81 66 15 Profit before interest and income tax 380 2,764 (2,384) Finance costs, net (75) (203) 128 Profit before income tax 305 2,561 (2,256) Income tax charge (56) (735) 679 Net profit 249 1,826 (1,577) Both Sales and Cost of sales in 1Q 2010 were higher than 1Q 2009, generally due to higher average crude and product prices, partly offset by lower petroleum sales volumes.Gross profit in 1Q 2010 was Baht 1,441 million, Baht 2,328 million lower than 1Q 2009, mainly reflecting weaker refining gross margins and lower crude runs. Selling and administrative expenses in 1Q 2010 were Baht 1,154 million, slightly higher than in 1Q 2009. Profit from sales in 1Q 2010 decreased by Baht 2,399 million, with a decrease in the Downstream segment of Baht 2,761 million, and an increase in the Petrochemical segment of Baht 362 million. The improved profit from sales for the Petrochemical segment was due to an improvement in paraxylene and other chemical product margins. Net finance costs were down by 63% or Baht 128 million in 1Q 2010 as a result of lower interest rates. The effective tax rate was 18.5% for 1Q 2010 primarily because of the share of profit from an associate. 4 With the above-mentioned factors, the company reported a net profit of Baht 249 million in 1Q 2010 versus a net profit of Baht 1,826 million in 1Q 2009. 5 5. Balance Sheet (Unit: million Baht except for percentages) 31 Mar,2010 31 Dec,2009 + / (-) + / (-) % Assets -Current assets 23,609 26,372 (2,763) (10%) -Non-current assets 35,912 35,643 269 1% Total assets 59,521 62,015 (2,494) (4%) Liabilities -Current liabilities 28,712 31,516 (2,804) (9%) -Non-current liabilities 6,464 6,424 40 1% Total liabilities 35,176 37,940 (2,764) (7%) Shareholders' equity -Issued & paid-up share capital 17,075 17,075 - - -Premium on share capital 4,032 4,032 - - -Retained earnings 3,031 2,782 249 9% -Fair value reserve 200 179 21 12% Minority interest 7 7 - - Total shareholders' equity 24,345 24,075 270 1% Total liabilities and shareholders'equity 59,521 62,015 (2,494) (4%) As of 31 March 2010, current assets decreased by Baht 2,763 million from year-end 2009,due mainly to lower inventory and cash balances. Non-current assets increased by Baht 269 million, due primarily to higher property, plant and equipment, reflecting the early phase of Euro IV investments. Current liabilities decreased by Baht 2,804 million due to lower short-term borrowing of Baht 3,739 million. There was no significant change in the non-current liabilities. Within the total liabilities, our total debts were Baht 24,419 million, comprising of Baht 18,624 million of short-term borrowings which included bills of exchange, Baht 295 million of short-term loans from related parties and Baht 5,500 million of long-term loans. Total shareholders' equity increased by Baht 270 million, reflecting 1Q 2010 net profit of Baht 249 million, and an increase in the fair value reserve of Baht 21 million. 6 6. Financial Ratios Comparison of financial ratios is as follows: Profitability ratios 1Q 2010 1Q 2009 Gross profit margin (%) 3.3% 11.3% Net profit margin (%) 0.6% 5.5% Interest coverage ratio (times) 9.2 15.5 Liquidity and debt to equity ratios 31 Mar, 2010 31 Dec, 2009 Current ratio (times) 0.8 0.8 Quick ratio (times) 0.2 0.2 Total debt to equity ratio (times) 1.0 1.2 Long term debt to equity ratio (times) 0.2 0.2 Net debt to equity ratio (times) 1.0 1.1 Financial ratios calculation: Gross profit margin = Gross profit / Sales Net profit margin = Net profit / Sales Interest coverage ratio = EBITDA / Interest expense Current ratio = Current assets / Current liabilities Quick ratio = (Cash and cash equivalents + Short term investments + Trade receivables) / Current liabilities Total debt = Current borrowings + Non-current borrowings Total debt to equity ratio = Total debt / Total shareholders' equity Long term debt to equity ratio = Non-current borrowings / Total shareholders' equity Net debt to equity ratio = (Total debt - Cash and cash equivalents)/ Total shareholder's equity Name: Robert Michael Cooper Title: Managing Director Date: May 13, 2010 7